The race to create new cryptographic standards before super-fast quantum computers are built that can rip apart data protected by existing encryption methods isn’t going fast enough, two senior Canadian officials have warned a security conference.
“I think we are already behind,” Scott Jones, deputy chief of IT security at the Communications Security Establishment (CSE), responsible for securing federal information systems, told the
Quantum computing – or more accurately, computers that use quantum mechanics – is not a dream, Jones and others told the conference of business executives, crypto academics, IT companies and government officials. One prediction is there’s a one in seven chance that by 2026 a quantum computer will exist that can break RSA-2048 encryption. It may take longer — or, if there’s an advance, shorter.
“Quantum represents a fundamental change and challenge to encryption for all of us,” Jones said, noting that encrypted transactions are the backbone of security and trust on the Internet.
His comments were backed by David Sabourin, CSE’s manager of cryptographic security, who said that if the 2026 prediction is right “we’re in trouble.” Speaking on a panel of government experts, Sabourin noted the U.S.-based National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) 
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Monday’s session was aimed mainly at leaders of companies and government. Sessions today and Wednesday will see more technical proposals discussed on creating standards to meet the problem.
In an interview Jones said CSOs today have ask what information they have that is at risk. “If I take the worst case scenario ] a quantum system that can break encryption in 10 years], is there information I am holding that I’m responsible for protecting? Then, what steps do I need to take to protect that. It’s the same quesiton around general cyber security,” he added.
Some governments are already taking action. For example, the conference heard, Germany requires satellites regulated by the country to be able to be reconfigured for quantum-secure solutions.
The conference is organized by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) and the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Quantum Computing.
“This is not a just a nuisance for technical people or mathematicians,” Michele Mosca, the IQC’s co-founder and deputy director told the conference “This is going to seriously compromise the security and integrity of our information assets and core business functions. The business functions you and your customers rely on won’t work – and its not a matter of patching it up in a couple of days.”
There are two ways of mitigating the threat, he said: Deploying conventional quantum-safe cryptography (also called quantum resistant algorithms or post-quantum cryptography), which includes hash-based and lattice-based and symmetric key cryptography solutions; and the yet-t0-be built quantum cryptography, which uses the properties of quantum mechanics to establish keys that cannot be broken.
To help risk officers Mosca’s reduced the problem to a mathematical equation, where x is the shelf life of current information, y is the number of years it would take to retool the organization’s existing infrastructure with large scale quantum-safe solution, and z the number of years it will take for a large scale quantum computer to be built.
If x+y is greater that z, the organization has a problem and has to act, he said.
He also added that the threat is serious enough to predict that in the next six to 24 months organizations will be differentiated by whether they have a well-articulated quantum risk management strategy.
Governments and academics aren’t working alone on the problem. So are companies as big as Cisco Systems, Microsoft and Intel, who had representatives on a panel. All said one reason is they need to ensure their companies are able to deliver secure software updates in the future.
It doesn’t matter how far away a quantum computer is, said Brian LaMacchia, director of Microsoft Research’s security and cryptography group – it’s coming. Even if a quantum computer isn’t built, he added, the solutions being worked on will help strengthen IT security.
David McGrew, a fellow in Cisco’s advanced security research group, said one way CIO can be ready is ensuring it’s organization has an agile infrastructure ready to adopt new encryption solutions.