ORLANDO โ It was hot outside the Florida hotel where this yearโs annual BlackBerry World conference took place. Inside, it apparently wasnโt hot enough for some financial analysts.
They were looking for evidence that Research In Motion is about launch products that will hack into the considerable lead in smart phone sales that iPhone and Android devices have built up, particularly in the United States.
Despite the fact that RIM CEO Thorsten Heins said in March that the next-generation BlackBerry 10 operating system and handset that can run it would only be delivered later this year โ a clear sign that little of substance would happen here โ financial analysts were disappointed at what they heard.
Yes, there was a peek at what maybe is coming, but it wasnโt BB10 that was running on a prototype handset proudly showed off on Tuesday. It was actually the operating system behind the PlayBook tablet, which admittedly has similar framework, displaying what may or may not be a new user interface. And the prototype handset being passed around to developers wonโt see the light of day in production. In fact, itโs called an Alpha.
Not only that, RIM [TSX: RIM] still has yet to name a new chief marketing officer. There was a marketing theme conjured up, around BlackBerry helping uses be successful in their jobs and personal life.
But what will the new CMO do with that?
Of course, financial analyst have to deal with hard numbers โ declining sales, dropping revenue, plunging share prices. (Or, in the case of Apple, soaring sales, soaring revenue, soaring share prices.)
Meanwhile, late next month or in July RIM will release another quarterly financial statement that even Heins admits wonโt be hot.
Industry analysts, on the other hand, can afford to be cooler. Thatโs not to say theyโre right more than the financial analysts, but some have a different perspective.
Carl Howe, vice-president of mobile applications research at Yankee Group is one of them.
In an interview he dismisses financial analyst as people who donโt understand that RIM isnโt dying. It is, he acknowledges, a company in transition, but other IT companies have been in that boat, too. He cites Microsoft and Apple.
โEvery time itโs ugly,โ he added. But some survive.
And itโs hard to die when RIM keeps pulling in revenue (although in the last quarter it dipped into the red), he said.ย
No new finished product here? Why give away secrets? Howe asked. โThey know they have one opportunity to make a splash,โ he said.
Besides, he adds, the QNX-based operating system behind BB10 is used widely in other industries, giving RIM the opportunity to use it as a multi-device platform. Heins showed off a Porche tricked out with a PlayBook โpowered interface to make the point. This is an area Apple wonโt got, Howe argues, and could give RIM a field of โuncontested growth.โ
Then thereโs Heins. After a one-hour meeting Howe was impressed with his โdown to earth approach.โ
โThis is a guy who can get it done,โ Howe concluded.
Similarly, Boston based industry analyst Jack Gold was impressed with the BB10 demos, particularly the virtual keyboard that can learn a userโs preferences.
He would have liked to get more details on the upcoming smart phone and the launch date.
โMy overall impression from listening to these guys is theyโve got a chance to come back,โ he said. โTheyโre not going to be where they were. Theyโre not going to capture 50-60 per cent of the market. But the obituaries have been written too soon. Theyโre not dead yet.โ
โAt the end of the day,โ he added, โitโs all going to about execution. If they canโt technology and convert it into something people want to buy, then it doesnโt matter what theyโve got.โ
Howe described himself as โcautiously bullishโ about RIMโs future. โItโs their game to lose,โ he said.
Trying to discern RIMโs future from all this has a few more variables. Itโs no use asking carriers or enterprises how impressed they are with equipment on the market. And then thereโs application developers, who RIM needs badly. They have to port their apps to BB10 in sufficient numbers to impress handset buyers. Will they take the time, or continue to put priority on the bigger market held by iPhone and Android?
The wild card, of course, is RIMโs shareholders, who may not be patient. After watching their stock drop, will they sell to someone who offers a slight premium and then, perhaps, breaks up the company?
In short, can they take the heat?